Bangladesh National Budget FY2026-27: Balancing on a Tightrope provides CAL Research’s analysis of Bangladesh’s largest-ever national budget, examining its growth ambitions, revenue targets, expenditure priorities, deficit financing, taxation, household impact, investment, and capital markets. The FY2026-27 budget totals BDT 9,380 billion, with a record BDT 6,950 billion revenue target, BDT 3,000 billion ADP, and BDT 2,430 billion budget deficit, equivalent to 3.6% of GDP. The government targets 6.5% GDP growth for FY27.

The report examines the sharp 19% increase in expenditure, the highest growth in a decade, with the ADP contributing BDT 1 trillion of the increase. It also assesses the record revenue target, which relies heavily on VAT despite the NBR consistently falling short of collection targets.

The analysis covers the government’s financing strategy, including a greater reliance on foreign borrowing, personal and corporate taxation, social safety-net spending, ADP implementation, VAT increases, and measures affecting consumers and businesses. The report also explores how the budget could influence household consumption, private investment, inflation, corporate earnings, and the Bangladesh equity market.

CAL Research