Bangladesh’s macroeconomic outlook is turning increasingly positive in 2H2025, with easing inflation, lower interest rates, a stable exchange rate, and improving external balances creating a more supportive environment for growth. CAL Research expects inflation to fall to 6.5%–7.5%, interest rates to ease to 8.5%–9.5%, GDP growth to recover to 5%–6%, and USD/BDT to remain stable at 122–125 by December 2025. Strong remittance inflows, a current account surplus, improved FX liquidity, and lower power-sector arrears further strengthen the outlook. With monetary easing and improving economic stability, Bangladesh moves closer to an “All Signals Green” environment for recovery and investment.

CAL Research